The New York Knicks moved within one victory of their first NBA championship in over half a century on Tuesday night, securing a commanding 3-1 series lead over the San Antonio Spurs following a historic 107-106 victory. The win, fueled by a record-breaking 29-point comeback, has shifted championship odds heavily in New York’s favor as the series heads back to San Antonio for Game 5 this Saturday. According to the latest data from FanDuel Sportsbook, the Knicks are now massive favorites to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy, carrying a -490 moneyline to win the series.
A Historic Turnaround in Game 4
The Knicks’ victory on June 10 was not merely a win; it was a statistical anomaly that rewrote the NBA record books. Entering the contest, the record for the largest comeback in NBA Finals history stood at 24 points, set by the Boston Celtics against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2008. The Knicks shattered that mark by overcoming a 29-point third-quarter deficit to stun the home crowd and the Spurs bench alike.
The game began as a projected blowout for San Antonio. The Spurs dominated the opening frame, leading by 19 points after the first quarter and extending that cushion to a staggering 27 points by halftime. When the lead swelled to 29 early in the third quarter, many analysts and fans assumed the series was destined to be tied at 2-2. Instead, the Knicks mounted a relentless defensive stand that silenced the San Antonio offense for the remainder of the evening.
Defensive Masterclass and Statistical Disparity
The turnaround was predicated on a dramatic shift in defensive intensity and shooting efficiency. After allowing the Spurs to erupt for 41 points in the first quarter and 35 in the second, the Knicks’ coaching staff implemented a high-pressure defensive scheme that disrupted the Spurs’ rhythm. New York outscored San Antonio 26-14 in the third quarter and 32-16 in the final frame, effectively neutralizing the Spurs’ perimeter threats.
The second-half statistics tell a tale of two different games. The Spurs, who looked unstoppable in the first half, were held to just 30 total points across the final 24 minutes of play. This defensive lockdown allowed the Knicks to chip away at the lead, culminating in a frantic final minute where New York took its first and only lead of the game to secure the one-point victory. The psychological impact of such a collapse is expected to weigh heavily on a young San Antonio roster as they face elimination.
Betting Markets and Historical Precedent
Following the Game 4 result, oddsmakers have drastically adjusted their projections. The Knicks are currently listed at -490 to win the series, meaning a bettor would need to wager $490 just to see a $100 profit. Conversely, the Spurs have moved to +380 underdogs. Despite the momentum being firmly with New York, the betting lines for Game 5 suggest a tight contest in San Antonio, with the Spurs opening as 5.5-point favorites and a -198 moneyline to win the individual game.
History is overwhelmingly on the side of the Knicks. In the history of the NBA Finals, only one team has ever successfully overcome a 3-1 series deficit: the 2016 Cleveland Cavaliers. Led by LeBron James, the Cavaliers defeated the Golden State Warriors in seven games after trailing 3-1. For the Spurs to win the 2025-26 title, they would need to replicate that rare feat, winning three consecutive games against a Knicks team that has shown elite resilience.
Looking Ahead to Game 5 in San Antonio
The series now shifts back to Texas for Game 5, where the atmosphere is expected to be electric. For the Knicks, the objective is clear: close out the series and end a championship drought that has lasted since 1973. The team’s ability to maintain the defensive pressure seen in the second half of Game 4 will be the primary factor in whether they can celebrate on the Spurs’ home floor.
The Spurs, meanwhile, must find a way to rediscover the offensive flow that gave them a 29-point lead. Head coach and player adjustments will likely focus on breaking the Knicks’ full-court pressure and finding more consistent scoring options when their primary sets are disrupted. With an Over/Under set at 216.5, oddsmakers anticipate a moderately high-scoring affair as both teams fight for survival and glory respectively.
Observers should watch for the health and fatigue levels of the Knicks’ starting rotation, which logged heavy minutes during the comeback. Additionally, the performance of the Spurs’ bench will be critical in providing the spark needed to force a Game 6 back in New York. If the Knicks secure the win on Saturday, it will mark one of the most improbable paths to a title in modern sports history, solidified by a Game 4 performance that will be studied for years to come.
